Post No. 27: WHERE ARE THE WISE LEADERS?

A poem to start this post:

Where Are the Wise Leaders?

I look out at many wars

Safe in my cozy palace.

I cringe at easy brutality

Driven by fear or malice.

Is this just being human

And we’ve no other choice

Are we driven by our coding

And all the rest is noise?

I cannot accept this

Though it may be true

History clearly shows

Continuous wars anew

Pax Romana, Pax Americana

Here there were times of peace

What made them so special

What was the secret grease?

Each time it was the leaders

Graced with vision and wisdom

Able to listen, inspire and lead

I hope we can soon get some!

What makes a wise leader? I suggest there are four main marks: Vision, Inspiration, Communication, Leadership But first a short digression. This post examines leadership especially from the great powers, most notably the United States. It is my opinion that the U.S. is the most important player for world peace. This was shown in both World Wars One and Two and efforts to create peace after these wars. In both instances the U.S. attempted to create mechanisms that would ensure a more peaceful world. We tried but failed to prevent England and France from imposing crippling reparations on Germany after World War One, and were instrumental in creating the League of Nations. The League of Nations failed but my point is that for the first time there was a great power that looked to world peace, not territorial expansion, after a successful war. After World War Two there was a period of peace, Pax Americana, that lasted over fifty years despite the Cold War. This ended with the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan followed in over a year with the U.S. invasion of Iraq. I suggest these were nasty mistakes, however one rationalizes them. No nation has an unsullied record. Hence my focus on United States leadership. A leader is by definition powerful. If they have no power, whatever its form, one cannot lead. I suggest the U.S. should retain and grow its military superiority and watch out that its internal affairs do not weaken its power. With this in mind, let's look at some of the marks of a wise leader.

VISION: This seems easy but not really. Vision requires being able to look past conventionality. It's easy to have a vision that extrapolates in a straight line using current, conventional thinking. Rather, vision is creative and is not afraid to go in new, perhaps risky, directions. It does not ignore but captures the wisdom of past thinking and focuses on more creative forward looking goals. Vision is the ability to understand in depth current conditions and their causes and to develop first principles based on this knowledge. What might this look like if applied to some current challenges? One may or may not agree but following are some of my thoughts.

• THE MIDDLE EAST: This area has been a challenge for many decades. It is difficult to imagine how the current war between Israel and Hamas will evolve. A leader will understand current conditions and possible causes. I suggest for this challenge there are several "current conditions and their causes" to consider:

• The Reason for Israel: The idea of a Jewish State was the result of worldwide Anti-Semitism. For centuries in Europe and Russia there were pogroms that periodically aimed at the expulsion or extermination of the Jewish population. Theodor Herzel, a secular Austro-Hungarian Jew, despaired of Jews ever being assimilated in Europe and convened the first Zionist Congress in 1897. He originally hoped to find a Jewish homeland in British East Africa. We all know the history from there. A Jewish homeland was established in Palestine, and Arab nations waged several wars of extermination against Israel. Once again there were attempts to expel and eliminate the Jewish people. This time they were able to fight back.

• Terrorism: Hamas is a terrorist organization driven by resentment and religious extremism. They would do irreparable harm to Israel or Western nations in Europe or the U.S. if they had the chance. A wise leader must inspire other nations to join together to end this threat. The U.S. has provided military support but not public diplomatic support to enlist other nations. The recent statement by Macron of France that "an international coalition is needed to defeat Hamas" is an example. Israel should not be left dangling by itself in the eyes of Hamas sympathizers in its efforts to defeat a terrorist organization that, in the words of Macron, is a threat to all. Absent an international coalition, the efforts by Israel will and are amplifying Anti-Semitism in the world. Another major cause of concern is Hezbollah in Lebanon, a country that borders Israel to the North. The name "Hezbollah" or Party of God was actually chosen by Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the Iranian Revolution. Hezbollah has been a destabilizing force in the region, including in Lebanon, Israel and Syria. It is recognized as a terrorist group by most Western and Arab nations.

• The Reason for Palestinian Resentment: Successive waves of Jewish emigration, mostly due to various pogroms in Europe, led to Palestinian residents being pushed off their land, sometimes with violence. Then in 1948 the United Nations agreed to the formation of the State of Israel, to the great dismay of Arab states who walked out of the U.N. session. What followed was a series of wars over several decades where the Arab States attempted to end the State of Israel. These wars were all won by Israel. After the 1967 war Israel annexed the West Bank from Jordan and the Gaza Strip from Egypt. More Palestinians were driven off their lands and to this day most yearn for return to their ancestral homes in territory that Israel now occupies.

• The Refugee Problem: There are several million Palestinian refugees as a result of successive waves of Jewish emigration and several wars, especially the 1948 and 1967 wars. Arab states currently refuse to give refuge to Palestinians looking to avoid the current conflict. Several million refugees are housed in refugee camps for decades in Arab States who refuse to assimilate them as citizens in their countries. Their argument is that Palestinians have the "Right of Return" to their original lands, a right approved by a U.N General Resolution in 1974. Only Jordan has been successful in the past of assimilating the Palestinian refugees. About half a million Palestinian refugees have been assimilated in Western countries since 1948. Any potential solution must address the Palestinian refugee problem. Arab states are indispensible in solving this challenge and they must be engaged by wise leaders. Wise leaders must also engage Israel to imagine a solution where Palestinians not assimilated in other countries can live in peace as part of a combined State with Israel or a separate Nation. The current geography where Gaza Strip and the West Bank are separated on opposite sides of Israel should be reimagined.

• Iran: Iran uses terror to gain influence in the Middle East. It funds Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. As a Persian nation that adheres to the Shia sect of Islam, they see themselves opposed to Arab nations all of whom are primarily Sunni Muslims. Most Arab nations want to live in peace and increase trade and well-being in the Middle East. A wise leader will understand these causes and conditions and work with Arab and world leaders to attain peace in the Middle East. For this to happen Iran must be isolated until such time when it changes its government or ends efforts to destabilize the Middle East. Iran has vowed to exterminate Israel. This is a condition a wise leader will try to remedy.

• UKRAINE AND RUSSIA: Russia has brutally invaded Ukraine in an effort to gain territory for itself. Most nations rightfully condemn this action. There are causes and conditions that a wise leader should consider when envisioning possible conditions for peace. It is easy to make this a black and white issue and thus arm Ukraine so that this brutal war can continue with the hope that Ukraine can push Russia completely out. A wise leader will understand the power disparities between Russia and Ukraine. They will also understand the recent history of Ukraine and the West, especially the Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine in 2014. They will understand the history of NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union. A wise leader will weigh whether Russia winning this war is a real threat to future invasions of European nations. They will consider how and whether to influence both Ukraine and Russia to develop a peace agreement.

CHINA: China is important to both these areas of conflict, the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine. Unfortunately in the past year or so there have been an East-West alignment of Great Powers. China has allied itself to Russia and North Korea, and the U.S. and E.U. nations have formed their own defensive bloc. This is unfortunate because both World Wars were preceded by Great Powers aligning into blocs against one another. Fear and nationalism were the driving forces, as they are today. A wise leader will have a deeper understanding of the possible military threat from China. and whether or not they are more interested in peace and trade among nations. A wise leader will engage China regarding mutual interests in the above two areas of conflict and attempt to use their massive joint power to consider solutions. A wise leader will be able to communicate, inspire and lead its nation and other nations to find more peaceful solutions. A wise leader must be able to lead its nation away from the conventional, knee-jerk fear and nationalism that typically occurs in times of potential conflict. At the same time, this leader must communicate a clear message about its readiness to use military force against bad actors and territorial aggression.

Some may say that what is written here in this post is naive and doesn't reflect the reality of world affairs. They might be right. Yet I maintain that wise leadership can turn things around toward a more peaceful world. We are in the midst of some very difficult conflicts that have the potential for difficult times ahead for world peace. Let's hope we get wise leaders that lead us to a better place than we now find ourselves in.